Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 186.515220 227.981846 279.970214 351.287936 448.789245 5.808876e+02 7.798130e+02
2025-01-26 147.376514 198.276034 271.354817 389.110797 585.254576 9.231776e+02 1.617232e+03
2025-02-02 124.117224 178.408019 264.265162 420.664264 727.348130 1.385768e+03 3.264967e+03
2025-02-09 107.850356 162.944705 256.822071 445.757341 872.727111 2.004124e+03 6.670812e+03
2025-02-16 95.033580 149.271710 247.346815 461.762888 1010.810181 2.793069e+03 1.402317e+04
2025-02-23 84.801716 137.499116 237.610318 472.639120 1146.693580 3.822169e+03 3.208020e+04
2025-03-02 74.667206 123.822900 220.575771 459.993739 1209.419257 4.729429e+03 6.879889e+04
2025-03-09 66.532981 112.453712 205.618873 447.006473 1264.949090 5.791668e+03 1.695711e+05
2025-03-16 59.398216 101.893468 190.184614 427.518157 1286.164590 6.779469e+03 4.600625e+05
2025-03-23 57.734457 101.850662 197.770459 474.866825 1621.034607 1.180284e+04 7.950400e+07
2025-03-30 53.852467 96.659102 192.413312 482.124654 1793.748924 1.676907e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 51.211757 93.685241 191.742176 504.432978 2080.269610 2.729789e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 47.064511 87.127946 181.479378 492.687161 2177.468774 3.699555e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 46.228045 87.763079 189.838383 552.417845 2868.440475 1.012825e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 44.917150 87.120612 194.717192 602.935010 3656.210950 3.424924e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 43.309143 85.543864 196.670949 643.549996 4523.092335 1.776223e+06 NaN
2025-05-11 41.414178 83.016698 195.345247 669.656595 5372.426027 2.560308e+07 NaN
2025-05-18 39.484039 80.155011 192.448406 687.484481 6243.117563 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 36.906721 75.389833 182.821452 666.763537 6460.754806 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 34.575143 71.016628 173.751060 645.582516 6641.213640 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 32.261021 66.473472 163.470926 613.992296 6544.501364 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 32.151342 67.571445 171.634704 691.144750 9384.960630 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 30.881380 65.496264 168.890802 703.090124 10816.018960 NaN NaN